Middle Tennessee over Minnesota in the 2017 NCAA Tournament was no upset. The Blue Raiders are for real

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, a 12-seed, beat the Minnesota Golden Gophers, a 5-seed, 81-72 in what was technically the first upset of the 2017 NCAA Tournament.

The Gophers, a rejuvenated power conference team, were, according to the NCAA Selection Committee, the 18th-best team in the tournament, going up against the 48th-best. The Lightning went 30-4 and cruised through their Conference USA regular season and tournament schedule, but played weak non-conference opponents.

Bettors disagreed with the committee, however. When the tournament bracket was released, Minnesota was a 1-point favorite, but by the time the first round game tipped off in Milwaukee, Middle Tennessee was a 1.5-point favorite.

You know that 12- over 5-seed upsets happen on an almost annual basis in the NCAA Tournament, but even for a popular upset pick, A LOT of people picked Middle Tennessee to beat Minnesota. On ESPN’s People’s Bracket, 57 percent of users picked Minnesota to win. The other three tournament 5-seeds were picked to win in 81 percent (Notre Dame) and 77 percent (Virginia and Iowa State) of submitted brackets.

There are two factors at play here.

Middle Tennessee is better than people realized

First and foremost, they’ve played the spoiler before. The Lightning beat Michigan State as a 15-seed last year in what was perhaps the biggest NCAA Tournament upset of all time. They returned two of their top scorers off that roster — Giddy Potts, who led the country in three-point shooting percentage last season, and Reggie Upshaw Jr.

Middle Tennessee then added Arkansas transfer JaCorey Williams, who averaged 17.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Those three players spearheaded a balanced team — the Lightning ranked 54th in the country on offense and 49th on defense in Ken Pomeroy’s pace- and opponent-adjusted calculations.

By winning 30 games, Middle Tennessee had its best season ever. Despite a relatively easy schedule, they proved their bona fides about as much as they possibly good during the season.

Minnesota, meanwhile, was waaaaay overseeded

That’s not to say that the Gophers were a bad team. They won 24 games this season after winning just eight the year before. Head coach Richard Pitino seems to have Minnesota poised for success for the next several years, leading a roster of largely freshmen and sophomores.

But many blinked when the Gophers were give a 5-seed and a very favorable first round location. They finished fourth in the regular season Big Ten standings, but were seeded ahead of two teams with better conference and overall records: Wisconsin (an 8-seed), and Maryland (a 6-seed).

Minnesota also went 1-3 against those teams during the regular season, before losing in the first round of the conference tournament to Michigan, which was given a 7-seed despite winning the tournament.

The committee seemingly relied on the Rating Percentage Index when it seeded Minnesota. RPI had Minnesota as the 20th-best team in the country. RPI is also regarded as a largely crap way to measure teams. Specifically, it weighs strength of schedule heavily, but the way it calculates it can that can be gamed by schedule Division II teams or brutal non-conference road games that reward teams even with a loss. (A 2012 post by ESPN’s Eamonn Brennan explains how that works).

Ken Pomeroy, meanwhile, had Minnesota as the 33rd-best team in the country.

To make matters worse for the Gophers, they lost one of their few experienced players in the Big Ten Tournament when senior guard Akeem Springs suffered a season-ending injury. Springs was the fourth-leading scorer of a balanced attack.

The Gophers put a talented, but overseeded, injured, and inexperienced team up against an improved and senior-laden giant killer. 

The result was an upset that few people would consider an upset at all.